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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 01:25 PM
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I tried to put this on my blog, but the date hasn't changed to 2010 yet.



It will be tough to predict the future, but here's an early look at the first round in 2010:

1-Chris Johnson-In baseball he would have that magical trait you are looking in a pitcher-electric stuff. When he breaks into the secondary, he's fun to watch. He can do it all. As long as he is getting his fair share of goal line carries, he belongs on top of the rankings. With 10 more TD's, he would be close to 450 points for the season. He is an impact player.

2-Adrian Peterson-I think the edge over MJD is the team. Minnesota should have a solid offense again next year. Peterson made progress in the passing game. He will finish the season with 40+ receptions. He was more consistent than in past years, but he wasn't as explosive. He had only one game with over 30 WCOFF fantasy points for the year, but he had double digit points every week.

3-Maurice Jones-Drew-He had a very good year. For his game to reach another level, Jacksonville needs to improve their offensive personal. They were a couple of games this year when they struggled to move the ball. He looks like a solid bet to get 300+ points again next season.

4-Ray Rice-He was an impact running back that a team could get late 3rd round. He was a difference maker. I have to get credit to Lou Tranquilli of BFD. He had him as a breakout player in 2009. For him to be a bigger impact next season, Baltimore might need to let Willis McGahee go. He vulchered 11 TD's last season. Rice had the most receptions in the league (74) going into week 17. He is a player that will improve again next season.

5-Frank Gore-This will be the tough part of the draft. If you are looking for a RB, Gore score points in all three areas-rushing, receiving, and TD's. San Fran looks like they are an improving team. Vernon Davis made a huge step forward and Michael Crabtree looked pretty good after sitting out the early part of the season. Some might consider Steve Jackson over Frank Gore, but the Rams need so much help on offense. Jackson has a herniated disk as of today.

6-Andre Johnson-He was an impact receiver down the stretch. He will finish the season with 100+ catches, and 1500+ yards. He hasn't made that jump in TD's yet, but Houston's offense improved despite problems at the running back position and the loss of Owen Daniels mid season. Matt Schaub's heath will always be a key for his success. He's a solid bet for 300+ WCOFF fantasy points next season.

7-Larry Fitzgerald-He wasn't as good in 2009 as 2008. He was banged up late in the year and Arizona had a better running game. He is a 100 catch receiver that will score double digit TD's. This combo make him a consistent performer each week.

8-Randy Moss-I thought about putting Steven Jackson here, but I thought Moss has a chance to outscore the whole Rams team next season. The Rams scored 17 TD's to Moss's 13 this season. The Patriot really need a third option at WR to take some of the double teams away from Moss. Welker works the underneath, but it still allows a safety to shade Moss's side of the field.

9-Steven Jackson-His value will be driven by the improvements in the Rams' offense next season. His herniated disk will need to be cleared up. He is a special player on a bad team. For now, he looks like best all around back on the board.

10-Rashard Mendenhall-When you are trying to look into the future, it's tough to gage what certain teams will look like and if some players will be healthy next season. Mendenhall did a good job in 2009 should do better next season. He caught enough passes where you would believe he will score points in all three areas for a running back. I could see a bump in yards, receptions, and TD's.

11-Jamaal Charles-He was the hot player to end 2009 and he will be a player who's value will rise in 2010. He has breakaway speed and he is a good receiver. I'm ranking him this high because he should have the whole show and there are a few question marks today in other teams back fields. He scored 150+ WCOFF fantasy points in eight weeks as a starter. With a full season at that pace, he would rank in the top five at RB. There might be concerns with his ability to carry the load for a full season, but a healthy training camp will keep the excitement alive. The Chiefs still need to improve their offensive personal.

12-Reggie Wayne-He was the best receiver the first 11 weeks of 2009. He's another 100+ catch receiver with the ability to score double digit TD's. If you are looking for consistent receiver, he is player on a team that should score points. Indy's offense should only improve next year with the development of Collie and Garson. They might even have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back.
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wiljiro09
post Jan 1 2010, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 1 2010, 11:45 AM) *
I tried to put this on my blog, but the date hasn't changed to 2010 yet.


12-Reggie Wayne-He was the best receiver the first 11 weeks of 2009. He's another 100+ catch receiver with the ability to score double digit TD's. If you are looking for consistent receiver, he is player on a team that should score points. Indy's offense should only improve next year with the development of Collie and Garson. They might even have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back.


This might surprise you, but I think I'd place Wes Welker over Wayne - I might even place him in the top ten - That guy is a consistent PPR league ANIMAL -

w
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Oroonoko
post Jan 1 2010, 03:14 PM
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I wouldn't touch Jamaal Charles in the first round.

Chiefs just aren't any good. He's been solid, but I don't trust it yet.

Some interesting names to me ...

-- Ronnie Brown. If Ricky Williams really does retire, Brown's the workhorse again. And though he gets hurt every year, he's also among the best RBs in the league for 8 weeks or so ...

-- Brandon Marshall. Guy has back to back years with 18 and 21-catch games. Even though he was a total malcontent, he's had a very solid year. And a second year in McDaniel's system should only help, right?

-- Beanie Wells. If Warner sticks around, Beanie could get a lot of TDs as he becomes the workhorse and the Cardinals start to shift from a pass-happy offense to a more balance attack

-- Darren Sproles. Will LT be back next year?


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Van V
post Jan 1 2010, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 1 2010, 12:45 PM) *
I tried to put this on my blog, but the date hasn't changed to 2010 yet.



It will be tough to predict the future, but here's an early look at the first round in 2010:

1-Chris Johnson-In baseball he would have that magical trait you are looking in a pitcher-electric stuff. When he breaks into the secondary, he's fun to watch. He can do it all. As long as he is getting his fair share of goal line carries, he belongs on top of the rankings. With 10 more TD's, he would be close to 450 points for the season. He is an impact player.

2-Adrian Peterson-I think the edge over MJD is the team. Minnesota should have a solid offense again next year. Peterson made progress in the passing game. He will finish the season with 40+ receptions. He was more consistent than in past years, but he wasn't as explosive. He had only one game with over 30 WCOFF fantasy points for the year, but he had double digit points every week.

3-Maurice Jones-Drew-He had a very good year. For his game to reach another level, Jacksonville needs to improve their offensive personal. They were a couple of games this year when they struggled to move the ball. He looks like a solid bet to get 300+ points again next season.

4-Ray Rice-He was an impact running back that a team could get late 3rd round. He was a difference maker. I have to get credit to Lou Tranquilli of BFD. He had him as a breakout player in 2009. For him to be a bigger impact next season, Baltimore might need to let Willis McGahee go. He vulchered 11 TD's last season. Rice had the most receptions in the league (74) going into week 17. He is player that will improve again next season.

5-Frank Gore-This will be the tough part of the draft. If you are looking for a RB, Gore score points in all three areas-rushing, receiving, and TD's. San Fran looks like they are an improving team. Vernon Davis made a huge step forward and Michael Crabtree looked pretty good after sitting out the early part of the season. Some might consider Steve Jackson over Frank Gore, but the Rams need so much help on offense. Jackson has a herniated disk as of today.

6-Andre Johnson-He was an impact receiver down the stretch. He will finish the season with 100+ catches, and 1500+ yards. He hasn't made that jump in TD's yet, but Houston's offense improved despite problems at the running back position and the loss of Owen Daniels mid season. Matt Schaub's heath will always be a key for his success. He's a solid bet for 300+ WCOFF fantasy points next season.

7-Larry Fitzgerald-He wasn't as good in 2009 as 2008. He was banged up late in the year and Arizona had a better running game. He is a 100 catch receiver that will score double digit TD's. This combo make him a consistent performer each week.

8-Randy Moss-I thought about putting Steven Jackson here, but I thought Moss has a chance to outscore the whole Rams team next season. The Rams scored 17 TD's to Moss's 13 this season. The Patriot really need a third option at WR to take some of the double teams away from Moss. Welker works the underneath, but it still allows a safety to shade Moss's side of the field.

9-Steven Jackson-His value will be driven by the improvements in the Rams' offense next season. His herniated disk will need to be cleared up. He is a special player on a bad team. For now, he looks like best all around back on the board.

10-Rashard Mendenhall-When you are trying to look into the future, it's tough to gage what certain teams will look like and if some players will be healthy next season. Mendenhall did a good job in 2009 should do better next season. He caught enough passes where you would believe he will score points in all three areas for a running back. I could see a bump in yards, receptions, and TD's.

11-Jamaal Charles-He was the hot player to end 2009 and he will be a player who's value will rise in 2010. He has breakaway speed and he is a good receiver. I'm ranking him this high because he should have the whole show and there are a few question marks today in other teams back fields. He scored 150+ WCOFF fantasy points in eight weeks as a starter. With a full season at that pace, he would rank in the top five at RB. There might be concerns with his ability to carry the load for a full season, but a healthy training camp will keep the excitement alive. The Chiefs still need to improve their offensive personal.

12-Reggie Wayne-He was the best receiver the first 11 weeks of 2009. He's another 100+ catch receiver with the ability to score double digit TD's. If you are looking for consistent receiver, he is player on a team that should score points. Indy's offense should only improve next year with the development of Collie and Garson. They might even have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back.


Picks look great, the only thing I would change is putting Charles over Mendenhall


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE (wiljiro09 @ Jan 1 2010, 12:25 PM) *
This might surprise you, but I think I'd place Wes Welker over Wayne - I might even place him in the top ten - That guy is a consistent PPR league ANIMAL -

w


Welker had a great year. Wayne should beat Welker in yards and TD's. Welker's edge should be receptions. Will New England add another option in the passing game? I can see them moving Maroney. A better TE or better 3rd receiver might steal 20 catches away from Welker. I could see a 110 catches, 1150 yards, and 7 TD's or about 270 points next year. I think 2009 will go down as his career year.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE (Van V @ Jan 1 2010, 02:21 PM) *
Picks look great, the only thing I would change is putting Charles over Mendenhall


Charles is probably the better player, but the Chiefs need to up their TD total to something like 40. They scored 26 this year. It's not like Pittsburg set the house on fire. They only scored 38. I think they find an upgrade for their offensive line which leads to more scoring next season. I could see them in the 50 range. I like the development of Mike Wallace.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:27 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 1 2010, 01:34 PM) *
I wouldn't touch Jamaal Charles in the first round.

Chiefs just aren't any good. He's been solid, but I don't trust it yet.


I don't think I trust him either, but I think fantasy players will be looking for next year's Chirs Johnson and Charles will be wearing the name tag. Maybe he will go second round, but some players will take him and settle for who is left at WR.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 1 2010, 01:34 PM) *
-- Ronnie Brown. If Ricky Williams really does retire, Brown's the workhorse again. And though he gets hurt every year, he's also among the best RBs in the league for 8 weeks or so ...


Coming off an injury, he should be discounted in the draft. Miami looks like they are improving. If Ricky leaves, the insurance policy will be a lot cheaper this year.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 1 2010, 01:34 PM) *
I wouldn't touch Jamaal Charles in the first round.

-- Brandon Marshall. Guy has back to back years with 18 and 21-catch games. Even though he was a total malcontent, he's had a very solid year. And a second year in McDaniel's system should only help, right?


I think I'm a bigger fan of Marshall than Wayne, but I think Indy will score a lot more. Marshall is a solid 100 catch guy. He will go on the turn for sure. I also think some players will put Miles Austin in this group.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 1 2010, 01:34 PM) *
-- Beanie Wells. If Warner sticks around, Beanie could get a lot of TDs as he becomes the workhorse and the Cardinals start to shift from a pass-happy offense to a more balance attack


I could see Wells being overvalued next year. He looked good late, but Hightower will get in the way for sure. If he makes the 5th round, you night have a deal. I don't see it. I'm thinking late 3rd or early 4th.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 04:39 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 1 2010, 01:34 PM) *
-- Darren Sproles. Will LT be back next year?


I could see LT elsewhere. I could also see someone else getting the goal line carries. Sproles will be a player that will move up in the draft based on news.
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post Jan 1 2010, 09:59 PM
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I would like to add a few sleepers, depending on what happens this off season.

1. J.Stewart - If D-Will gets released because of contract? Stewart probably takes Gore's place.

2. W.Welker - I would take him at the turn. No questions asked. The guy is $$$! Definitely ahead of Charles/S-Jax


What if__ List:

1. Cleveland gets a Head coach, QB, WR. Does J.Harrison move up?

2. The Jets release T.Jones. Does Greene become a 2nd rounder?

3. Chicago upgrades their O-line. Does Forte go back to being a 1st rounder?

4. The Giants named Bradshaw the starter. Would he become a 1st/2nd rounder?

5. The Pats signed TO. Would Brady go in the 1st round in 80% of leagues?

6. Royal gets traded to whatever team Shannahan signs with. Would people still take him in the 4th/5th round or would you still be pissed about getting burned this year? angry.gif
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
1. J.Stewart - If D-Will gets released because of contract? Stewart probably takes Gore's place.


If Stewart or Williams had the whole show in Carolina, that back would be a top six pick for sure. As of today, we don't have that answer.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:26 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
1. Cleveland gets a Head coach, QB, WR. Does J.Harrison move up?


I'm not sure I trust him. There has to be some reason Jennings was ahead of him on the depth chart.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:28 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
I would like to add a few sleepers, depending on what happens this off season.

2. The Jets release T.Jones. Does Greene become a 2nd rounder?


He's probably takes Jones' draft slot where ever that maybe. I don't think it is the second round.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
3. Chicago upgrades their O-line. Does Forte go back to being a 1st rounder?


Forte's lack of flash this year will keep his value down. He goes somewhere in the second round.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:31 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
4. The Giants named Bradshaw the starter. Would he become a 1st/2nd rounder?


Bradshaw will probably play well Sunday and up his draft value. He really needs to get his foot problem corrected before he goes full value next season.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
5. The Pats signed TO. Would Brady go in the 1st round in 80% of leagues?


I don't think people respect TO anymore. He would be a nice fit in New England. I don't think any QB's will go in the first round in the WCOFF. Now that might be a rookie mistake.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 1 2010, 10:36 PM
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QUOTE (Pats_12 @ Jan 1 2010, 08:19 PM) *
6. Royal gets traded to whatever team Shannahan signs with. Would people still take him in the 4th/5th round or would you still be pissed about getting burned this year? angry.gif


I don't think Royal gets traded. He will probably sildes past the 7th round this year.
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post Jan 1 2010, 11:15 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 1 2010, 03:50 PM) *
Coming off an injury, he should be discounted in the draft. Miami looks like they are improving. If Ricky leaves, the insurance policy will be a lot cheaper this year.

Yeah, that happens every year. And every year, Ronnie Brown is one of the top RBs in the league when he gets hurt.


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Van V
post Jan 2 2010, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 1 2010, 09:54 PM) *
I don't think people respect TO anymore. He would be a nice fit in New England. I don't think any QB's will go in the first round in the WCOFF. Now that might be a rookie mistake.


With 10 of the top 15 scorers this year and 5 of the top 6 being QB's except C. Johnson at number 2, I don't believe that at all, I think there might me more QB's going in the first round


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Ray Ray's Re...
post Jan 2 2010, 01:23 PM
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QUOTE (Van V @ Jan 2 2010, 11:14 AM) *
With 10 of the top 15 scorers this year and 5 of the top 6 being QB's except C. Johnson at number 2, I don't believe that at all, I think there might me more QB's going in the first round


More Qb's in the first round? The fact that 5 of the top 6 scorers were QB's should tell you no QB is worth a first round pick.


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 2 2010, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE (Van V @ Jan 2 2010, 11:14 AM) *
With 10 of the top 15 scorers this year and 5 of the top 6 being QB's except C. Johnson at number 2, I don't believe that at all, I think there might me more QB's going in the first round


I wish you the best with that plan. There's nothing better than drafting next year based on last year's stats. Over the last couple of years I bet more than 50% of the top 15 players were QB's. You shouldn't be looking at total points. You should focus on the point gaps. You need to find players that give you an edge.
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post Jan 2 2010, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE (Van V @ Jan 2 2010, 12:14 PM) *
With 10 of the top 15 scorers this year and 5 of the top 6 being QB's except C. Johnson at number 2, I don't believe that at all, I think there might me more QB's going in the first round



wink.gif One can only hope! I think 11 QB's should go in the first round of my drafts...


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 2 2010, 01:24 PM
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QUOTE (TrunkMonkey @ Jan 2 2010, 11:44 AM) *
wink.gif One can only hope! I think 11 QB's should go in the first round of my drafts...


All you have to do is start the run!
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TrunkMonkey
post Jan 2 2010, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 2 2010, 12:44 PM) *
All you have to do is start the run!


NICE! Glad I have time to think about it.


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Van V
post Jan 2 2010, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 2 2010, 11:44 AM) *
I wish you the best with that plan. There's nothing better than drafting next year based on last year's stats. Over the last couple of years I bet more than 50% of the top 15 players were QB's. You shouldn't be looking at total points. You should focus on the point gaps. You need to find players that give you an edge.



Thanks!


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Van V
post Jan 2 2010, 02:20 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 2 2010, 11:44 AM) *
I wish you the best with that plan. There's nothing better than drafting next year based on last year's stats. Over the last couple of years I bet more than 50% of the top 15 players were QB's. You shouldn't be looking at total points. You should focus on the point gaps. You need to find players that give you an edge.


By the way I never said that was my plan as I have never drafted a QB in the first round, but thanks again anyhow.


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Van V
post Jan 2 2010, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE (TrunkMonkey @ Jan 2 2010, 11:44 AM) *
wink.gif One can only hope! I think 11 QB's should go in the first round of my drafts...


wink.gif Amen Brother!


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wiljiro09
post Jan 2 2010, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 1 2010, 08:54 PM) *
I don't think people respect TO anymore. He would be a nice fit in New England. I don't think any QB's will go in the first round in the WCOFF. Now that might be a rookie mistake.


You can honestly see TO and Moss in the same locker room? No way - Belechick would never do that to his locker room

w
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 2 2010, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE (wiljiro09 @ Jan 2 2010, 03:36 PM) *
You can honestly see TO and Moss in the same locker room? No way - Belechick would never do that to his locker room

w


If he plays for a discount
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post Jan 2 2010, 10:00 PM
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4-Ray Rice-He was an impact running back that a team could get late 3rd round. He was a difference maker. I have to get credit to Lou Tranquilli of BFD. He had him as a breakout player in 2009. For him to be a bigger impact next season, Baltimore might need to let Willis McGahee go. He vulchered 11 TD's last season. Rice had the most receptions in the league (74) going into week 17. He is player that will improve again next season.

Thanks for the plug Sean. Very much appreciated.

Here's the whole breakout article...and I think you have the first round pretty well locked in. One thing that will change the makeup is a wild off season of.....trades. like we have never seen before in football. It reall could come about this off season.

2009 Breakout Player of the Year

Ryan Pohle and Louis Tranquilli for BFDFANTASYfootball.com



We’re sticking with a running back for our Breakout Player this season. Our guy is ready to emerge; with all signs pointing to an outstanding situation, opportunity and supporting cast.

This RB reminds us of a previous Breakout Pick when we nabbed an inexperienced but talented Braylon Edwards as our guy.

Much like Braylon that year, our pick is a promising player that will be a focal point of his team’s offense.

He’s a guy Fantasy Owners are laying low on in current drafts, and we know why...




Our 2009 Breakout Player of the Year:



Ray Rice-RB-Baltimore Ravens





Who is He?



Rice wasn’t a household name coming out of college, Rutgers University tried hard to make him a Heisman Trophy Candidate; but coming from a school that had been a college football doormat for 90 years will make that an impossible hill to climb. He holds plenty of rushing records for the Scarlet Knights; including career rushing yards, TDs, single season rushing record and single game rushing record. That production is what mattered to the new Ravens coaching staff and GM Ozzie Newsome; they thought enough of him as a cornerstone for this offense that they made him their 2nd round selection in the 2008 draft, after picking their Franchise QB Joe Flacco in Round #1.



Rice is a 5’8” 205lb fire hydrant, a guy that can catch the ball and showed enough “wiggle” to get this acknowledgement from Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron during his 2008 rookie training camp.

“Ray's so much better than we thought on draft day. His route running, his hands, his pass protection all complement his running."

This kind of praise from an NFL coordinator who coached LaDainian Tomlinson makes us giddy. He earned the praise, and did so as a player that left Rutgers to enter the draft after his Junior season; so he’s young, experienced and accomplished.





Who’s around him?



Talented players in the most important spots, the offensive line.

GM Ozzie Newsome was on the Ray Ellis show with Lou in 2008 discussing the Ravens offensive line. When Lou asked him who would man the all important Left Tackle spot since Jonathan Ogden was retiring Ozzie brought up Jared Gaither’s name, the offensive tackle selected in the 2007 supplemental draft out of the University of Maryland. Here’s what Ozzie had to say “Jared is athletic and 6’9” tall, he would have been a 1st round selection in 2008 had he been in the common player draft”.



Ozzie has been planning this offensive line rebuild for four seasons, he added Chris Chester at Guard in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, Ben Grubbs a mauling Guard out of Auburn in the 1st of the 2007 Draft, Gaither in the Supplemental as stated and now packs on Michael Oher a 6’4” Tackle out of Mississippi in the 1st of the 2009 draft to man the right side of the line. That didn’t stop Ozzie from adding six time Pro Bowler and longtime Vikings center Matt Birk as a leader for this young group.

Every one of these players is at least 6’3” and no lighter than 305lbs.

There’s beef up front, and that makes for plenty of running room.

Depth along the line is equally important and the Ravens have plenty of it with David Hale, Marshal Yanda (who started at one point) and Oniel Cousins waiting in the wings.



The skinny:



Reports out of 2009 OTAs have noted Rice is ready for a bigger share of the RB load, and asking for it. Here’s a quote from HC John Harbaugh on June 10th 2009 (pretty good timing) "People see [Rice] as a third-down back because of the success he had last year," Harbaugh said, "but I don't think we have any questions that he can be an every-down back."

Ray has reportedly added 10lbs of muscle during the off season while maintaining that quickness needed for his pass catching duties. He snared 33 receptions a year ago, pretty impressive for a rookie who missed three games and wasn’t involved in a handful of others. PPR players have to take note that a 50+ catch season is well within reach. Here’s what Rice had to say: "If they see you work, [offensive coordinator Cam] Cameron's going to get the ball in your hands,"

Cameron loved the swing pass to LaDainian in San Diego; from 2004 through 2006 Tomlinson had no less than 50 catches. In 2007 as the Dolphins Head Coach Cameron managed to get the ball into Ronnie Browns hands via the pass 39 times in just 7 games. Nice.

When looking for the Breakout guy a few key factors come into play. The offensive line (already covered), dedication to the running game and schedule.



We are salivating over all three.



In 2008 the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing attempts, putting the ball in their RBs hands 522 times. Only the Falcons were close with 491 attempts. This coaching staff knows what it has up front on that offensive line, and the RBs benefit.

The other opportunity is pass receptions, Ravens backs combined for 83 during Rice’s rookie season, good for an 11th place tie. A solid number we expect to increase in 2009 with Rice leading the way. When the Ravens allowed him to be the lead dog our man responded, in Week 9 on the road in Cleveland he received 21 carries and smoked the Browns with 154 yards including a 60 yard scamper, they even spread the offense out some to take advantage of Ray’s speed vs. the Browns Line backers. He can protect the ball too; he had just 1 fumble on 140 touches, nice work for a guy that was playing college games against Ball State only a few months before.



The Ravens schedule breaks pretty nicely in 2009; the AFC North gets to play the NFC North and AFC West. The only two defensive units in those two divisions that look tough are the Bears and Chargers (the Vikings are in there too; but we will wait to see what happens with the Williams’ suspension).

Getting teams like the Chiefs, Broncos and Lions should really make that offensive line choke with excitement like a dog after a big bone. Weeks 13 through 15 look very nice to us, they travel to Green Bay (easy), get Detroit at home (easier) and Chicago at home (harder, but at home). The week 16 game against the Steelers is a bummer; we will have to rely on that stud offensive line to make room for Ray.



The Downside:



So what’s keeping Rice’s Average Draft Position so low? The main reasons are teammates Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. Looking back at their ’08 numbers, neither McClain nor McGahee averaged four yards per carry and only combined for 43 catches.

Willis remains a strange guy to get a handle on; he stated during OTAs that he’s happy to be the backup to Rice:

McGahee said Tuesday (June 9th) during the final minicamp for veterans. "I don't mind. Work is work. That's either with the first, second or third." That’s the spirit Willis, makes us comfortable with this choice as a Breakout. On one hand Rice is quoted saying he will work hard, and the other McGahee is o.k. with 1st, 2nd, 3rd team.

Reports came out that McClain was being moved to a more traditional FullBack role, Cam Cameron did comment on those reports calling them untrue and not accurate stating clearly Le’Ron will continue to receive carries. We take Cam on his word, because he hasn’t let us down when it comes to RBs before, so there is some opportunity risk here; but not very much when you consider no one RB is coming anywhere near 522 carries.

We’ll take 55-60% of that number going to Ray, and be thrilled.



There is no ignoring the fact ’08 fullback Lorenzo Neal left for Oakland, where he goes so go 1000 yard rushers. That actually leads back to McClain filling that position on a more consistent basis; even with Cameron’s statements factored in he’s going to see fewer touches. Reports have also come out detailing McClain’s weight gain, an obvious precursor for plowing the way through LBs.
The Ravens coaching staff has even talked about using McClain at tight end in 2009, the bottom line is he’ll be busy in other positions and won’t see anywhere close to the playing time at running back he did a season ago. McGahee had knee surgery in May and offseason ankle surgery; he hasn’t played a full season since 2005 and despite playing in 13 games a year ago, he only started eight leaving some games early, including the AFC Championship in which he was carted off the field after a brutal hit.



The Conclusion:

Ray is in a near perfect situation for the sharp Fantasy Owner to pounce, other drafters are nervous because of the surrounding RBs and the statements made by Cameron. We are looking and listening closer, we see a guy with a tremendous offensive line, equally tremendous opportunity and obvious willingness to work hard.

Rice has shown a burst that the injury prone McGahee lacks, and that the bigger and slower McClain simply doesn’t have. The commitment to his position is there by the coaching staff and the schedule leaves us wanting the season to start right now. It’s hard for us to find a value greater than Rice in current FF drafts. He’ll be the busiest Ravens RB this year, but surprisingly he’s being drafted within 24 picks of McClain and McGahee. Although we know you won’t be able to get him at his current 8th round ADP a month from now, he’s still going to come at quite a bargain with a 6th-7th round drafting price.

Don’t make the mistake of passing on him for someone like Cedric Benson or Tim Hightower. There’s so much more to be had here.



2009 Projections: 1280 Rushing Yards, 350 Receiving Yards, 45 Receptions and 9 Total TDs



Thanks again for mentioning it.

3'


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 4 2010, 09:41 AM
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11-Jamaal Charles-He was the hot player to end 2009 and he will be a player who's value will rise in 2010. He has breakaway speed and he is a good receiver. I'm ranking him this high because he should have the whole show and there are a few question marks today in other teams back fields. He scored 150+ WCOFF fantasy points in eight weeks as a starter. With a full season at that pace, he would rank in the top five at RB. There might be concerns with his ability to carry the load for a full season, but a healthy training camp will keep the excitement alive. The Chiefs still need to improve their offensive personal.

With one more hot game, he had surely pushed his way into the first round in all drafts. I think he ended up with 230 WCOFF fantasy points by averaging 20+ points for 9 weeks. I think he just passed two more players in the first round.

So much for flying under the radar.
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CC's Desperados
post Jan 4 2010, 09:45 AM
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Rice has shown a burst that the injury prone McGahee lacks, and that the bigger and slower McClain simply doesn’t have. The commitment to his position is there by the coaching staff and the schedule leaves us wanting the season to start right now. It’s hard for us to find a value greater than Rice in current FF drafts. He’ll be the busiest Ravens RB this year, but surprisingly he’s being drafted within 24 picks of McClain and McGahee. Although we know you won’t be able to get him at his current 8th round ADP a month from now, he’s still going to come at quite a bargain with a 6th-7th round drafting price.

I wonder if McGahee just earned another shot as a starting RB for another team. He had one hell of a left cross to knock down the defensive back in his long TD run yesterday.
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3intboyBFD
post Jan 4 2010, 10:34 AM
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QUOTE (CC's Desperados @ Jan 4 2010, 08:01 AM) *
11-Jamaal Charles-He was the hot player to end 2009 and he will be a player who's value will rise in 2010. He has breakaway speed and he is a good receiver. I'm ranking him this high because he should have the whole show and there are a few question marks today in other teams back fields. He scored 150+ WCOFF fantasy points in eight weeks as a starter. With a full season at that pace, he would rank in the top five at RB. There might be concerns with his ability to carry the load for a full season, but a healthy training camp will keep the excitement alive. The Chiefs still need to improve their offensive personal.

With one more hot game, he had surely pushed his way into the first round in all drafts. I think he ended up with 230 WCOFF fantasy points by averaging 20+ points for 9 weeks. I think he just passed two more players in the first round.

So much for flying under the radar.



The key to Charles value really lies in what the Chiefs do on offense. Do they bring in some line help? He has played well, but with enough time to be really ready for what the Chiefs are doing with him he'll be defended eaier.

I hope they get some line help, then I agree; he'll be near impossible to keep out of round #1.

McGahee sucks. Doesn't care and will be a former Ravens player. They rested Ray against a horrible defensive line/LB crew yesterday.

Willis will be a very good compliment to Fred Taylor/Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney in New England.LOL.

3'


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Former Army Pers...
post Jan 4 2010, 11:30 AM
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Jamaal Charles - as a Chiefs fan, I watch every game and it has been very dismal for three years. But with Charles, at least there was some excitement. Every time he got thru the line clean, he was a threat to go all the way and a reason to sit up and take notice. It was a real shock yesterday when he was caught from behind once, but when he makes the open field, he is clearly faster than almost every player on the defense. The big improvement in his play from the first part of this season to his hot run at the end was that he did not go down on first contact. Last year and early this, he seemed to be easy to tackle. But in the second half, he consistently fought for extra yards and stayed upright unless wrapped up. Since he was more likely to stay on his feet and break a tackle to get thru the line, his speed came into play more as he had more chances to break long runs.

I think the question marks with him are the o-line, which I hope the Chiefs will upgrade, his durability, abd the coaching. He got out of Haley's doghouse but he could easily go back in it, plus who will be the Chief's OC and play-caller next year may affect his usage.
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Scott Atkins
post Jan 4 2010, 01:58 PM
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1. Chris Johnson
2. AD
3. MJD
4. Jamal Charles - yeah I'm drinking the kool aid. As long as they don't spend a top pick on a back.. but really they have so many other needs I don't see it.
5. Ray Rice - McGahee is a goner IMO.
6. Gore - Should see lots of action next year.
7. Andre Johnson - Something special here with Schaub.
8. Jonathan Stewart (if Dwill is gone)
9. Reggie Wayne - still Peyton's top guy.
10. Randy Moss - with Welker out, look out, even at 33.
11. Steven Jackson (a bad year on a horrible team, still ranked 8th and missed week 16)
12. Miles Austin... yeah I said it.

Why not Fitz? Warner is a big question mark.


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 4 2010, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE (Team Legacy @ Jan 4 2010, 12:18 PM) *
4. Jamal Charles - yeah I'm drinking the kool aid. As long as they don't spend a top pick on a back.. but really they have so many other needs I don't see it.


So he's your new and improved Priest Holmes?
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Oroonoko
post Jan 4 2010, 02:09 PM
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Well after that game, I'm coming around on Jamaal Charles.

I think I'd still take sure things like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald (if Warner is back), and Andre Johnson over him, though.


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CC's Desperados
post Jan 4 2010, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE (Oroonoko @ Jan 4 2010, 12:29 PM) *
Well after that game, I'm coming around on Jamaal Charles.

I think I'd still take sure things like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald (if Warner is back), and Andre Johnson over him, though.


Maybe we can schedule KC to open up the season on Thursday night against a top rush D....
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